Whither Witney?

Some photos from a visit to Witney earlier in the week on a glorious autumnal day.

A busy weekday morning in the Lib Dem HQ in Corn Street, Witney.











The sort of street that Bob and Thelma from the Likely Lads would live in if it was 250 miles North.

A military transport plane heads towards RAF Fairford (or possibly Brize Norton?)

 

The sort of idylic rural home that makes producers of TV lifestyle programmes swoon.








So how are the Lib Dems going to do?  The truth is I have no inside information and what follows is hunch and supposition.

Witney is the sort of rock solid seat that always returns Conservatives so given the state of the various opposition parties a comfortable hold should be on the cards.  But the Lib Dems have fought a vigorous campaign from fourth place and are likely to leapfrog Labour and the Greens as a result.  But from my (albeit) brief visit both reds and greens maintain significant pockets of support which means they are unlikely to be squeezed down to the sort of levels that hand the anti-Tory mantle solely to the Lib Dems.  How well the Lib Dems do - and there is some talk that they may even challenge to win - will inevitably depend on how many Green and Labour voters lend their votes to the Lib Dems later today.

But the Tories are sufficently entrenched that how the opposition parties line up shouldn't matter to their prospects of defending the seat.  And in that the election feels very much like another recent high profile Oxfordshire by-election - Henley in 2008.  That saw another vigorous Lib Dem campaign (and a Labour lost deposit) and certain over-excited talk in the Lib Dems of snatching the seat from the Tories.  And there I remember the sense of disappointment when the result came in that the Lib Dems had marginally increased their share to 28%.

However - given the party's collapse in the Clegg years - 28% now would be (and would be seen as) something of a victory.  Mark Pack has a useful guide to judge the Lib Dem performance. 

How the Lib Dems won a landslide in Grove

Cllr Jon Tolley writes about his campaign  on his blog.

The Clacton danger for Clegg...

... the Liberal Democrats will not win the forthcoming Clacton by-election.  If tonight's opinion polls turn out to be at all accurate Clacton will be the scene of the largest ever by election swing - at a massive 47.5% to UKIP. 

I think a UKIP victory of that size is unlikely, but they are rightly clear favourites:

At the last local elections (the counties in 2013) UKIP were just 1,000 votes behind the Tories (8,200:7,200) with Tendring First picking up almost 4,000 votes - Labour were a bit behind in fourth and the Lib Dems and Greens fighting over avoiding fifth.   On these kind of figures it is clear UKIP has the essential ingredient for winning parliamentary by-elections - local organisation and credibility.

The longer term risk for Clegg is that the expected UKIP victory doesn't just give them their first elected Westminster representation (and possibly unlocks further defections) - it consolidates UKIP as England and Wales's third party in terms of popular vote.  With just eight months before the next general election there is not much time (and no evidence that Clegg or his highly paid strategists have the ability) for the Lib Dems to turn it around.

And if the Lib Dems were to come fourth (or even fifth) in the popular vote at the 2015 general election - it would be the worst result in the party's history - regardless of how many MPs were returned - and put the party's very existence at risk.

A new leader before the election might not make the difference - but what is clear is the current one is going down to a historic defeat from which the party may not recover.

Cleggonia wins victory in the battle of Newark!

Communique no 1,843 from the Ministry of Truth was issued today at 09.42 hours:

"In the small hours of 6th June 1984 2014 the forces of Cleggonia won a massive victory over the lacky forces of Protasia!

With our glorious Conservasian allies the so called 'peoples army' of counter revolutionary bourgeois Protasia was destroyed in combat.  All hail Big Clegger!"

Inner Party member O'Ashdown added, "This victory confirms the superiority of IngCentrism.  Under the rule of Big Clegger we have seized coalition power and we will not be relinquishing it. Coalition is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a coalition in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the coalition . The object of campaigning is campaigning. The object of Focus is Focus. The object of Connect  is Connect.  The object of power is power.


"I have today by way of celebration increased the Focus ration to 250 leaflets per week"

 

Bumper by election nights 19

Last week saw the Lib Dem vote collapse by 35%  in the one ward they were defending and failing to stand in the other three constests.

In the last council by-elections of the year there are nine contests today.  Labour defend two rock solid seats in Bolton and Torfaen, the Tories defend six and there is an Independent vacancy in the Black Isle Ward of Highland Council.

Once again UKIP are standing more candidates than the Lib Dems - eight to seven, but both beat Labour who are only standing in six contests. 

Wards to watch are in West Sussex (Haywards Heath East) where UKIP will be looking to win the division where they were they were less than 150 behind the Tories in the county elections and the Lib Dems came fourth in a seat they were defending.  UKIP may also have hopes in the linked Mid Sussex district vacancy but which is a good deal safer for the blues.

And in another County/District double vacancy the Scotter/Scotter Rural in West Lindsay/Lincolnshire UKIP will again be looking to build on good county results, but may be hampered by recent splits in their group,

There are also three by-elections early in the new year - a rare Tuesday by-election on 7th January in the former Lib Dem seat of Swinton South in Salford where the party is not standing but a former Lib Dem councillor is now standing for the Greens.

And two days later there are two contests - in the split Con/Lab ward of Haverhill East where Labour should pick up the Tory vacancy and in a safe Tory seat in Tonbridge and Malling where the Lib Dems are failing to contest.



 

By-election night 18

Last week saw a Lib Dem near miss in the wonderfully named Splott Ward in Cardiff, where Labour held on by 100 and also comfortably saw off Plaid in Riverside.

In the other city contests Labour held on comfortably in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester with the Lib Dems polling 148 votes in total, but the party did have the - ahem - satisfaction of seeing its vote double in the Glasgow Shettleston contest to 1.4%.

Outside of the cities all the seats changed hands with the Independents gaining from the Tories in Chelmsford, the Tories gaining from Labour in Nuneaton and Bedworth and Labour gaining from the Residents' Association in Dartford.  The Lib Dems didn't stand in the latter two contests and polled just 24 votes in Chelmsford.

This week there are four by-elections with just a single Lib Dem candidate defending a vacancy in split Lib Dem/Tory Iver Village and Richings Park ward in South Buckinghamshire.  The Tories are unopposed in Hambledon and defend in Hornby Castle, Richmondshire.  Labour are defending their Bedworth West stronghold in Warwickshire. UKIP once again stand more candidates than the Lib Dems (and Labour) with a candidate in all the opposed contests.

By-election night 17

An extremely poor set of by-election results for the Lib Dems last week, with the party being significantly outpolled by UKIP everywhere it stood with the exception of Lambeth's Vassal ward.  There the party managed second place - but faced a massive 16.5% swing to Labour - enough to lose it every seat on the council next May.

Eight by-elections this week and for the first time in a few weeks we're back to UKIP standing in more contests than the Lib Dems.  UKIP have a full slate - two more than the Lib Dems - which is all the more impressive given five of the eight contests are in Cardiff, Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester.

And it's the two constests in Cardiff that are likely to be of the most interest - with Labour defending a seat in Riverside where Plaid previously held the seats and another in Splott which was untill 2011 a split Lib Dem/Labour ward and Labour are now defending a majority of less than 400.

It's a sense of deja vu for voters in Manchester's Ancoats and Clayton ward who are returning to the polls just a few weeks after the previous by-election .  The question for the Lib Dems will be can they improve on seventh place and 44 votes in this month's ten way contest?

For the Tories, they face a tricky defence in the marginal South Woodham, Elmwood and Woodvile ward where their majority is just 94 over the local independents.  The by-election was caused by the disqualification of their sitting councillor which is likely to make the defence even trickier.

By election night 16

Last week saw two extremes of Lib Dem performance - a great win against Labour in Golcar in Kirklees and an abject defeat to the Tories in Comberton South Cambridgeshire.


This week there are six contests - three Labour vacancies, two Tory and one SNP - in John Thurso's Caithness and Sutherland constituency.  Needless to say it's the only contest in which the Lib Dems aren't standing. 

The interesting contests are in Lambeth's Vassell ward which in 2010 was a tight Lib Dem/Labour contest where both parties won seats in a split ward.  I can't see it being that close this time.  The other interesting battle is in Wakefield's Horbury and South Ossett ward where a marginal Tory/Labour ward has recently been won by increasing margins by the reds.  Labour should hold, but the size of their majority may be indicative of whether the Tories are making progress in the northern English towns.

By election night 15

Last week's four by-elections proved pretty dismal for the party - with it polling just 191 votes and 16% in Winton East ward in Bournemouth - a ward the party used to hold.  In the other three contest the party polled 88 votes - in total - with shares ranging from 1.2% to 2.6%.  Labour had a good night gaining both of the Cumbria contests.

This week there are five contests with two Lib Dem seats up for grabs one of which - Eastfield ward in Scarborough - the party is guaranteed to lose after the withdrawal for personal reasons of its candidate.  The other Lib Dem seat is Comberton in South Cambridegshire where the threat may come from UKIP rather than the traditional Tory opponents.

The most interesting battle is in Kirklees's Golcar ward where Labour have leapt from third place in 2007 to first in 2011 and 2012 and are defending the vacancy.  Their majority is less than 150 over the Lib Dems - who still have a councillor in the ward - so the result ought to give some indication of whether the worst is over for the Lib Dems in northern cities.

By-election night 14

The most interesting thing about last week's ten by-elections would have been that all ten incumbent parties held on, if it wasn't for the dismal performance of the Lib Dems.

The party managed to increase its vote marginally in Crook ward in Durham and significantly in Bosworth ward, Harborough, but made no progress Tupley, Herefordshire where the It's our County increased their majority in the former Lib Dem division.  But outside of these contest the Lib Dem score was derisory - 18, 70, 78, 56 and 53 (a range of 1.6%-3.7%) showing how weak the party is becoming outside of a limited number of target seats.  And these contests included wards in Surrey, Oxfordshire and Harrow.

This week sees four contests: a split Lab/Ind ward in Allerdale, a split Lab/Tory ward in Stoke on Trent a safe independent division in Cumbria and a reasonably marginal Tory/Labour ward in Bournemouth that was comfortably Lib Dem until 2007.  It will be interesting to see whether the party can make any progress in any of these contests.  At least it is standing in all of them.

By-election night 13

The Lib Dems had a decent result in last week's only by-election with the party leaping from fourth to second in Newport's Pillgwenlly ward.

But this week the party is facing a much bigger challenge with another bumper crop of ten by-elections.  Seven of the ten are in the north and midlands which might explain why there are no Lib Dem defences among them.  In a continuation of a very positive recent trend the Lib Dems are again standing more candidates than UKIP with eight candidates to the kipper's seven.

The interesting contests this week should be in the London Borough of Harrow where Labour are defending a vacancy in the Harrow on the Hill ward where representation is shared with the Conservatives and recent splits in the Labour group have led to a Conservative being elected council leader at an extraordinary council meeting in September. 

In Herefordshire's Tupsley division the Lib Dems will be keen to make progress in a previously solid Lib Dem ward, but where the party fell to third with the intervention of the bizarrely named 'It's our county (Herefordshire)' party - as if locals might confuse it for a different county. 

The other interesting contest is in Crook, County Durham - a split Labour/Independent ward where a Labour councillor died and six candidates including two independents (but no UKIP) are competing for the vacancy.

By election night 12

Last week's byelections were pretty predictable - with Labour picking up, as expected, Shepshed West in Charnwood from the Tories and holding their other wards. 

The Lib Dems held their Norfolk seat with a swing from UKIP and improved their position - but only back to 2010 levels - in Waterlooville in Hampshire.  But they failed to make any inroads in Bovey Ward in Teignbridge (a target seat) where the Tories gained a 6% swing in their favour.  The weakness of the party in large parts of the country was exposed by derisory votes in Loughborough (=26) where the party finished behind some BNP splinter faction, Wigan (=19 and seventh place) and coming behind the Greens in the Wirral and West Sussex.

This week there is a single contest (in the loosest sense of the word) in the Pillgwenlly ward in Newport , South Wales, where Labour should have no problems holding their seat.

By election night 11

Last week not only saw the Lib Dems standing in more contests than UKIP, the party won its difficult contest against Labour in Luton and gained a second seat from the Tories in Dalston ward Carlisle.

This week there's another bumper crop of ten by-elections.  The Lib Dems are contesting nine of them (again one more than UKIP) including an interesting defence at North Walsham East where UKIP have been on the rise - coming second earlier this year.  The Dunfermline South contest will no doubt be overshadowed by the result in by Scottish parliamentary by-election - but it is a ward where the party has a councillor and topped the poll in 2007.  The local result may be a better indicator of whether the party is recovering north of the border than the constituency result which will be dominated by the SNP and Labour big guns.

The Lib Dems will also have hopes of a gain in Bovey ward in Teignbridge where a Tory councillor resigned in a ward they have won previously.

Labour will look to pick up Shepsted West in Charnwood where they were just 26 behind the Conservatives in 2011 and will expect to weigh their vote in South Lanarkshire, Wigan and the Wirral.

By-election night 10

Not a lot of interest from last week's results - particularly as the Lib Dems only stood in three of the eight contests - with all the elections being held by the incumbents.  The Lib Dems did poorly polling just 44 votes in Manchester and falling back slightly in Tweedale West in Michael Moore's constituency.  The remaining contest saw the Lib Dems actually increase their first preference share in Govan Glasgow to 1.5%, where the most interesting electoral stat of the night were the 23 transfers the 'No to the bedroom tax candidate' received from the eliminated Tory!

This week's six contests see for the first time in months the Lib Dems fielding more candidates than UKIP (5:4) and a tricky defence for the party in Luton's split Barnfield Ward which in 2011 elected one Labour and one Lib Dem in a previously safe Lib Dem ward (with Labour third).  The other interseting contest is in Carlisle's Dalston ward where the Conservatives are defending a vacancy in a ward with one Lib Dem councillor who has been unable to transfer his clear personal vote to fellow lib Dem candidates when he doesn't stand. 

By-election night 9

Last week provided that rare thing in current local by-elections - a good night for the Lib Dems with the party winning two out of the four contests.  Labour rather surprisingly picked up an independent seat in East Lindsey, with the Tories easily holding off a Green challenge in St Edmundsbury.

This week's eight contests highlight the weakness of the Lib Dems in much of the country with the party only standing three candidates and failing to find a candidate in Salford'sWeaste and Seedley ward - a ward the party held all three seats until 2010 (although it polled just 58 votes in a by-election earlier this year).  In next door Manchester an old mate John Bridges is flying the Lib Dem flag in a ward where the party used to be solidly second, but its vote has collapsed since coalition - coming in fourth behind even the Tories last year.

But perhaps the most interesting contest is in Glasgow Govan.  Not only is it a super tight SNP/Labour marginal a grand total of 14 candidates (including Scottish Lib Dem blogger and drug policy reformer, Ewan Hoyle) are standing.

By-election night 8

After last week's ten by-elections there are just four this week.  And two are Lib Dem defences - in Aylesbury Vale and Taunton Deane.  The Oakfield ward in Aylesbury is a marginal Lib Dem/Tory contest but in an area UKIP outpolled all comers in May's county elections. And the Taunton Halcon ward is traditionally safe for the Lib Dems, but with UKIP coming up on the rails in second last May. 

Once again UKIP are standing in every ward - along with Labour and the Tories - with the Lib Dems in three out of four.

UKIP should pick up the independent vacancy in East Lindsey like they did in a similar vacancy a few weeks ago and it will be interesting to see what progress the second placed Greens make in the Abbeygate ward of St Edmundsbury.

Last week UKIP once again significantly outpolled the Lib Dems scoring somewhere between 15 and 30% almost everywhere.  The one exception was in Mole Valley where they were restricted to 13% in a winning Lib Dem campaign that increased the party's majority over the Tories.

More evidence of UKIP's appeal to lost Lib Dem voters came in the contests in Sevenoaks where UKIP won a seat the Lib Dems used to hold before their previous sitting councillor switched to independent.  And in Coleford in the Forest of Dean UKIP polled 29% - almost exactly matching the 25% the Lib Dems polled four years previously.

By election night 7

Lib Dem Voice had a partial round up of last week's results - which saw the Lib Dems losing both seats they were defending - Labour picking up Oxford North and the Tories in Woking.  But in a not unsurprising result the Tories lost to UKIP in Canterbury in a ward they were just 83 in front the last time it was fought in May.

This evening Vote UK reports another bumper crop of ten by-elections.  There's a distinctly southern bias to the contests with eight out of the ten in the south and south west of England and just two in the north - in Blackpool and Barnsley.  But Labour are defending five, with the Tories four and the Lib Dems just one - in the delighfully named Mickelham, Westhumble and Pixham ward of Mole Valley dictrict in Surrey.

Once again UKIP are standing more candidates than the Lib Dems (10:7).  Labour are also standing in seven and the Tories once again field a full slate.

There are three wards of interest for Lib Dems including the previously mentioned Mole Valley contest which the Lib Dems gained marginally from the Tories in 2011.  The Crockenhill and Well Hill ward in Sevenoaks was solidly Lib Dem until 2011, when they failed to stand and an Independent picked it up unopposed until Labour won it in a by election last March  where again the Lib Dems didn't field a candidate.  With the party finally standing again - it will be interesting to see what sort of vote it can recover.

The blue remembered hills of the Forest of Dean provide two contests - a very safe Tory seat in Redmarley and a more interesting contest in Coleford East caused by the death of a Labour councillor.   The ward has traditionally swung between the reds and the blues until 2009 when in a by-election an independent won it in a tight four way contest where the Lib Dems came second.  In 2011 Labour narrowly won two seats, with an independent taking the third from the Tories.  The Lib Dems improved their vote, but came in last.  UKIP did well in the Forest in the county elections earlier this year and with an independent forming the fifth runner 30% ought to be enough to win.

And the Storrington division of West Sussex could also provide an indication of the extent of public support or opposition to fracking with the intervention of a specifically anti-fracking Green (and former Lib Dem councillor) in a tightish Tory/UKIP contest.

Council by-election night 6

Four by-elections this evening according to Vote UK - with the Lib Dems standing in just two - a tricky defence in Oxford North where the party came third the last time the ward voted and in a Tory seat in Canterbury.  Labour, Tories and even the Greens are fighting all four and UKIP three.

In addition to the contest in Oxford, the Seasalter ward in Canterbury may prove of interest with UKIP just 83 behind in 2013.  Labour should hold comfortably in a six way battle in Dudley and the Tories in East Hampshire in a ward where the Lib Dems were once just 10 votes behind and are not even standing this time.

By-election woe for Lib Dems on day of Clegg speech

The Lib Dems failed to hold their seat in Woking in the most emphatic way - coming fourth behind UKIP.

Vote UK reports the result as follows:

Con = 1,057
Lab = 833
UKIP = 255
Lib Dem = 252

Four more to follow on Thursday...

Tuesday by-election night

A rare Tuesday by election takes place today says Vote UK.  It's a difficult defence for the Lib Dems in Woking following the disqualification of their councillor - they have a majority of just 16 over Labour, but the Tories hold the other two seats in the ward!