If you read some of the most popular Lib Dem bloggers - here and here - they seem to suggest the fate of the Lib Dems is entirely down to a vote of a few hundred members in a conference hall in Gateshead on whether they pass or reject a motion on the minutiae of the changes to the NHS proposed in the current bill.
The facts are that if the bill is passed by 2015 the NHS will exist pretty much in its current form - very well paid independently organised GPs will still be the driving force in patient care decisions and multi national drug companies will still be rubbing their hands with glee at the fat profits they make for providing generic drugs to the entire NHS at a huge mark up because the central bureaucracy is incapable of procuring anything at a competitive cost.
But that isn't the point.
Even if the bill resulted in the sacking of every nurse and doctor and the importation from the USA of their rapaciously inefficient health practices - then the Lib Dems fate would still be in their own hands.
The fact is that since entering coalition the leadership have been atrociously advised, media and PR has been almost non existent and its campaigns stuck fighting the battles of 2005. That's the cause of the party's collapse in vote share in the last two years - not the the decisions MPs and ministers have taken in government.
And if the party and its activists can cast aside the fatalism that says there's no way back and the leadership learn the real lessons of the last 18 months there is no reason not to look forward positively.
And there are signs in Nick Clegg's warm up speech in Gateshead that that is starting to happen:
“And now it is time to move on. To stop justifying being in Government and start advertising being in Government. To stop lamenting what might have been and start celebrating what is. To stop defending our decisions and start shouting our achievements from the rooftops.
“Lower taxes for working people. Fairer chances for our children. And the beginnings of a new, green economy that benefits everyone in every city, not just a few in the City of London.
“So: no more looking back. You can’t drive if you’re only looking in the rear-view mirror."
Let's hope it's the start of a proper campaign strategy - but given the several false dawns over the last year or so - I won't be holding my breath...