Peter Kellner: Lib Dems could slump to 19 MPs in 2015 'meltdown'

In an interesting commentary on the YouGov website, one of the UK's top psephologists - Peter Kellner -  postulates some 2015 election scenarios that see the Lib Dems end up with just 19 MPs.

In it he states:

"Until the recent elections I assumed that the Lib Dems would regain some ground as next year’s election approached. Even if they remained well below the 24% they scored in 2010, most of their MPs would enjoy enough local support to minimise their losses.

"Now I am not so sure. That is, I still think that the Lib Dems could claw their way back to around 14%; but there is now a chance that they will remain stuck on around 8%."
And on 8% - the best scenario for the party is just 23 seats. 

Kellner also turns perceived wisdom on its head that a narrow Labour lead equates to a small overall majority, stating "Labour must also abandon its hopes of winning an overall majority with a narrow lead in the popular vote. Depending on Lib Dem performance and the precise size of the Tories’ sophomore surge, Labour’s lead needs to be at least 3% and possibly 5%."

Clegg's perfect storm poster

Cleggonia wins victory in the battle of Newark!

Communique no 1,843 from the Ministry of Truth was issued today at 09.42 hours:

"In the small hours of 6th June 1984 2014 the forces of Cleggonia won a massive victory over the lacky forces of Protasia!

With our glorious Conservasian allies the so called 'peoples army' of counter revolutionary bourgeois Protasia was destroyed in combat.  All hail Big Clegger!"

Inner Party member O'Ashdown added, "This victory confirms the superiority of IngCentrism.  Under the rule of Big Clegger we have seized coalition power and we will not be relinquishing it. Coalition is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a coalition in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the coalition . The object of campaigning is campaigning. The object of Focus is Focus. The object of Connect  is Connect.  The object of power is power.


"I have today by way of celebration increased the Focus ration to 250 leaflets per week"

 

Rennard set to come back as general election director?

The Lib Dems are looking for a Director of General Election Strategy and the job description makes interesting reading:

Essential Skills and Experience

1. The ability to articulate a vision for Liberal Democrat electoral success in 2015

.

2.A record of delivering national electoral success.

 

3. 10 years’ experience of providing strategic leadership for a national political party .

 

4. A deep understanding of UK electoral politics.

 

5. A background and 5 years’ experience of delivering political marketing and market

research.

 

6. 10 years’ experience of leading political communications or campaigns for a political

party, including for a national general election.

 

7. A passion for and a commitment to campaigning.

 

8. Experience of working with and inspiring volunteers and staff.

 

9. A demonstrated commitment to liberal values

.

10. A proven track record of success within electoral politics.

 

11. 5 years’ experience gained working in a senior role within government.

 

12. 10 years’ experience gained working in a senior strategic role within a political party.

 

13. An understanding of the political dynamics of coalition government.

 

14. An established understanding of the internal dynamics of the Liberal Democrats

Could this be the reason for Rennard's unexpected apology last week?  If it's not going to be Rennard - who ticks pretty much all the boxes - then who else could it be? 

Nick Clegg's strategy exposed (part 497)

Former Winchester candidate, Martin Tod has a very good analysis of the Clegg bunker's failings.

Kingston Tories in palace coup

In a political coup worthy of Ken Livingstone's ousting of Andrew MacIntosh 24 hours after Labour taking control of the GLC in 1981, Kingston Tories have dumped their election winning leader just seven days after taking contol.

And in a move that will delight local Liberal Democrats, the Tories choice to lead the council is Kevin Davis.  Hapless Davis is well known to Lib Dems beyond the Royal Borough's boundaries - pledging (and failing) to oust David Laws in Yeovil in 2010 - just as he had done to Edward Davey five years earlier.  As a result of his lacklustre campaign in Kingston and Surbiton he was unceremoniously dumped by the voters of Berrylands Ward (scene of the 'Good Life') in 2006.

He is however not new to the leadership of Kingston Council, having been an executive member in the 1998-2002 Tory administration and Leader between 2001-2002 before losing the following election heavily.

As leader, the competence of his administration was in stark contrast to his overblown rhetoric:

He pledged to cut council tax, but under his watch it soared by 50%.  Davis was the first leader of Kingston Council to levy a tax of more than £1,000 a year.

In opposition he attacked the Lib Dems for increasing council staff numbers, failing to realise that under his leadership of the council a record 238 new staff were recruited in 2001/2. (The year the Council Tax hit £1,000).

He also made a fool of himself over several controversial schemes in Berrylands ward -where he attacked the Liberal Democrats for implementing them, when they happened under his watch.

And in a tear jerking post on his blog in 2007 - after losing out in the Tory parliamentary nomination for Kingston and Surbiton he said, "clearly my future no longer lies in Kingston".

But now in a puff piece in the local Kingston Guardian newspaper he is described as a 'PR guru', when in fact he runs a consultancy who seeks planning permission for property speculators.  This includes working for the developers of the controversial Surbiton Filter Beds scheme - which was finally defeated by residents (with the support of Ed Davey and the Lib Dems) after years of campaigning.

It promises to be an interesting few years under his leadership.

Why I'm backing Libdems4change (despite the use of a '4')

Last Thursday's election results were a disaster for the Liberal Democrats.  But they were no isolated event.  They come on top of almost equally disasterous results (particularly in the big cities) over the previous four years.  In fact the party's losing streak began as soon as Clegg took over the leadership and before the party joined a coalition government in 2010.

The scale of that disaster is huge - no councillors in Manchester, Southampton, Islington, Lambeth or Lewisham (where just a few years ago we either ran the council or had high hopes of doing so), replaced as the official opposition in Liverpool by the Greens with a mere four councillors and returning just 118 councillors across all of London - more than half in just two boroughs: Sutton and Kingston.  And that's before you get to the utterly disasterous Euro results, after a campaign fronted by Clegg and promoting his European vision.

The leadership's initial reaction to this was crass and patronising - implying those losing candidates (of which I was one) didn't work hard enough.

And then Nick Clegg gave his view, saying in a 'lady's not for turning' moment:

I don’t begrudge anyone for raising searching questions, for asking challenging questions about strategy and about leadership, all of it. It’s the most natural thing in the world after the electoral losses of the last few very very difficult days. But the question is, is that really a shortcut to doing what the Liberal Democrats want to do for Great Britain. And I think that losing our nerve, buckling down, washing our hands of all the decisions, exactly at the point that our decisions are being proved right, would be the wrong thing to do. 

But unlike Clegg I believe it is clear the party cannot go on as it is.  The party's strategy of essentially rejecting most of its previous support base in favour of a new centrist electorate who vote for governing parties has been tested to destruction.

It is perfectly possible to govern as radical outsiders trying to change the system - but this has been repeatedly rejected by Clegg and his team.  Instead Clegg argues that the Lib Dems can be either a party of protest or party of government - a line he has used ever since he was being advised by the world's worst political strategist - Richard Reeves.

So, Clegg gives me no choice.  He's not prepared to change a strategy and direction that can only end one way.  If he was, I would have no qualms about backing him - this battle is not, and should not, be about personalities.  But Clegg and his advisors are now wedded to a strategy that plainly is not working and if he won't change, he needs to go and be replaced by someone else who will make that change.

You can sign the Lib Dems for change petition here.

Exclusive: leaked fly-on-the-wall footage of Clegg's campaign team

Actually it's a sculpture in Berlin by Isaac Cordal called Electoral Campaign.

Kingston Lib Dems launch local election campaign

Council leader Liz Green among a group of campaigners and candidates launch the party's 2014 manifesto which contains a commitment to build four new primary schools and another new secondary.  At of course the Willoughby Arms...

The lesser known Margo MacDonald

With the sad news of the death of Margo MacDonald earlier today many tributes have been made about her many achievements on the Scottish political scene.  But what is probably less well known is that Margo was a season ticket holder at Easter Road, leading to this tribute from the club this afternoon.

One interesting consequences of her death is that she has no replacement on the list as she stood by herself.  And unless the Parliament makes provision for a list by-election (which I don't think it does) then her replacement will come from another list - which may mean the Lib Dems gain her seat.

Edit 11.40pm - apparently according to section 10(2) of the Scotland Act her seat will remain vacant until the next Scottish general election.