Bob Roberts is Donald Trunp

Trump is rushed off the stage in a possible assassination attempt, three days out from polling day. Now where have I heard that before...

A roasting of Trump from the archive...

With the US presidential election a few weeks away I thought it might be time to dig out of the archive Jonathan Meades's excellent evisceration of Donald Trump from 2011.

Enjoy.

Kim Jong Un is guest editor of Lib Dem Voice

Well you would have thought so from this pathetic article defending those responsible for the party's election disaster by using the excuse of legitimate concerns about staff welfare. 

What Caron Lindsay and the Lib Dem Voice Team are failing to realise is that by letting Ryan Coetzee, Tim Gordon, Hillary Stephenson and other senior (and highly paid) exectutives avoid legitimate criticism of their decision making, they are doing the party a big disservice.  Those at the top are not 'party staff' - they are executive management and it was their actions and decisions that determined the Lib Dem campaign.  They were the people carrying out the 'comfort' polls, writing the messaging, and advising the leadership on what to say and when.  In short they were responsible for the failure of the 2015 campaign.  And they should take responsibility and resign (like the Leader of the Party).

One final thought - if Coetzee is such a shrinking violet and unable to take criticism why then would he write a superficial and frankly deluded article for the Guardian (and reproduced by LDV) basically saying he ran the best possible campaign and wouldn't even change it now knowing its result. 

If you're foolish enough to try and  polish a turd in public - then don't complain when several buckets of the stuff get thrown back in your direction.

After the rout...

Last week's results weren't a complete surprise to everyone - as far back as May 2012 I postulated that without a change of srategy the party faced an existential crisis.

The result on Thursday and the hole the party now finds itself in is a direct result of the strategy pursued by those at the very top of the party - both at Westminster and at HQ.

Nick Clegg to his credit (and in some style) has done the decent thing; taken responsibility and resigned. Now is the time for his coterie of incompetents to do the same. Tim Gordon, Hilary Stephenson, Ryan Coetzee, Tom Smithard et al should now resign too – taking responsibility for the disaster they caused and preventing any more of our membership fees going to waste on over inflated salaries. Doing this will also make sure the junior staff and volunteers – who were not responsible for the strategic decisions – aren’t blamed for their bosses failings.

And with more than 10,000 new members since Thursday - they if no-one else - deserve to have their subscriptions spent on a clean slate.

Electoral Commission oversteps remit

Mark Pack reports that the name Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party has been banned by the Electoral Commission.  This is a sadly inevitable consequence of bureaucratic creep that was always going to result in  the Commission overstepping its remit. 

The Commission is there to register parties, their donations and investigate any dodgy funding - not to decide matters of taste.  If voters think 'crumpet' is demeaning to women, then they will vote accordingly.  It's not for some unelected bureaucrat to take that decision out of their hands.

So farewell George Mackie...

Although coming somewhat late to the tributes to George Mackie who died aged 95 earlier this week I thought I should put on record my one anecdote about him.  It comes from the 1980s when Mackie was the Liberal candidate for NE Scotland for the European Parliament (I was a student in Aberdeen at the time).

He was on a walk about in the city centre and was approached by a local punter who greeted him warmly...

'You're George Mackie'.

'Yes' replied Mackie.

'Your brother owns the dairy?' says punter.

'Yes' replied Mackie.

'Sold it to the fucking pakis' says punter

'Why don't you go and boil your head' replied Mackie and walks off.

Peter Kellner: Lib Dems could slump to 19 MPs in 2015 'meltdown'

In an interesting commentary on the YouGov website, one of the UK's top psephologists - Peter Kellner -  postulates some 2015 election scenarios that see the Lib Dems end up with just 19 MPs.

In it he states:

"Until the recent elections I assumed that the Lib Dems would regain some ground as next year’s election approached. Even if they remained well below the 24% they scored in 2010, most of their MPs would enjoy enough local support to minimise their losses.

"Now I am not so sure. That is, I still think that the Lib Dems could claw their way back to around 14%; but there is now a chance that they will remain stuck on around 8%."
And on 8% - the best scenario for the party is just 23 seats. 

Kellner also turns perceived wisdom on its head that a narrow Labour lead equates to a small overall majority, stating "Labour must also abandon its hopes of winning an overall majority with a narrow lead in the popular vote. Depending on Lib Dem performance and the precise size of the Tories’ sophomore surge, Labour’s lead needs to be at least 3% and possibly 5%."

Rennard set to come back as general election director?

The Lib Dems are looking for a Director of General Election Strategy and the job description makes interesting reading:

Essential Skills and Experience

1. The ability to articulate a vision for Liberal Democrat electoral success in 2015

.

2.A record of delivering national electoral success.

 

3. 10 years’ experience of providing strategic leadership for a national political party .

 

4. A deep understanding of UK electoral politics.

 

5. A background and 5 years’ experience of delivering political marketing and market

research.

 

6. 10 years’ experience of leading political communications or campaigns for a political

party, including for a national general election.

 

7. A passion for and a commitment to campaigning.

 

8. Experience of working with and inspiring volunteers and staff.

 

9. A demonstrated commitment to liberal values

.

10. A proven track record of success within electoral politics.

 

11. 5 years’ experience gained working in a senior role within government.

 

12. 10 years’ experience gained working in a senior strategic role within a political party.

 

13. An understanding of the political dynamics of coalition government.

 

14. An established understanding of the internal dynamics of the Liberal Democrats

Could this be the reason for Rennard's unexpected apology last week?  If it's not going to be Rennard - who ticks pretty much all the boxes - then who else could it be? 

Why I'm backing Libdems4change (despite the use of a '4')

Last Thursday's election results were a disaster for the Liberal Democrats.  But they were no isolated event.  They come on top of almost equally disasterous results (particularly in the big cities) over the previous four years.  In fact the party's losing streak began as soon as Clegg took over the leadership and before the party joined a coalition government in 2010.

The scale of that disaster is huge - no councillors in Manchester, Southampton, Islington, Lambeth or Lewisham (where just a few years ago we either ran the council or had high hopes of doing so), replaced as the official opposition in Liverpool by the Greens with a mere four councillors and returning just 118 councillors across all of London - more than half in just two boroughs: Sutton and Kingston.  And that's before you get to the utterly disasterous Euro results, after a campaign fronted by Clegg and promoting his European vision.

The leadership's initial reaction to this was crass and patronising - implying those losing candidates (of which I was one) didn't work hard enough.

And then Nick Clegg gave his view, saying in a 'lady's not for turning' moment:

I don’t begrudge anyone for raising searching questions, for asking challenging questions about strategy and about leadership, all of it. It’s the most natural thing in the world after the electoral losses of the last few very very difficult days. But the question is, is that really a shortcut to doing what the Liberal Democrats want to do for Great Britain. And I think that losing our nerve, buckling down, washing our hands of all the decisions, exactly at the point that our decisions are being proved right, would be the wrong thing to do. 

But unlike Clegg I believe it is clear the party cannot go on as it is.  The party's strategy of essentially rejecting most of its previous support base in favour of a new centrist electorate who vote for governing parties has been tested to destruction.

It is perfectly possible to govern as radical outsiders trying to change the system - but this has been repeatedly rejected by Clegg and his team.  Instead Clegg argues that the Lib Dems can be either a party of protest or party of government - a line he has used ever since he was being advised by the world's worst political strategist - Richard Reeves.

So, Clegg gives me no choice.  He's not prepared to change a strategy and direction that can only end one way.  If he was, I would have no qualms about backing him - this battle is not, and should not, be about personalities.  But Clegg and his advisors are now wedded to a strategy that plainly is not working and if he won't change, he needs to go and be replaced by someone else who will make that change.

You can sign the Lib Dems for change petition here.

In praise of police commissioners

Durham's Labour Police and Crime Commissioner, Ron Hogg, has called for a rethink on drug policy, calling for Danish style shooting galleries where intravenous drug users can access clean needles and medical advice while feeding there habit.  The Beeb's report claims 'Results published in the Lancet showed that prescribing pharmaceutical heroin in this way can reduce the use of street drugs and associated levels of crime.'

Meanwhile, the previous week Christopher Salmon, Dyfed/Powys's commissioner attacked the culture of the police that saw them trying to frame former Tory Chief Whip, Andrew Mitchell.  In an attack reported by the Daily Mail he said: ‘The culture around police forces is too closed, too defensive, too politicised and, in some cases, feral.'

This sort of debate on drugs policy and call to account for overblown and unaccountable elements of the constabulary was almost entirely missing from the debate on crime and policing (or was easily dismissed by the vested interests at the Home Office and their media friends) before the election of police commissioners.

Now there is an influential cadre of local people - with a democratic mandate - who are able to move on the debate from the old, sterile race to be seen to be the toughest on crime - regardless of its effectiveness.  That's a good thing which I hope will lead to more of them questioning how we are currently policed and for the Lib Dems to actually take these elections seriously because - like elected Mayors - they are almost certainly here to stay.

Just 8.8% vote in CIPR election

The Chartered Institute of Public Relations represents some of the country's most important communication professionals, including those practising the dark arts of political spin.  The membership are supposed to be some of the most politically aware and knowledgeable people in the UK.  So what to make of the frankly laughable turnout of just 8.8% for its re-run Presidential election?

The previous election was cancelled amid confusion over an apparent late nomination, in considerable publicity within the industry.  So one would have thought members would have no excuse not to cast their votes.

The turnout details from the electoral Refom Society are hidden away on the CIPR website with their news item simply referring to the winning margin 68%:32%.  But here is the breakdown:

Number of eligible voters: 8010
Votes cast by post: 20
Votes cast online: 683
Total number of votes cast: 703
Turnout: 8.8%

So the next time some politician lectures the benighted electorate for not bothering to vote - no doubt written by their PR Officer - perhaps they should be reminded to check a bit closer to home...

Which Lib Dem seat had the worst local election result?

Much has been made in the days since Thursday's local election rout of the resilience of the Lib Dem vote in seats held by Lib Dem MPs.  But what to make of this aggregated county election result from Lewes - a seat held by Lib Dem transport minister Norman Baker - with a majority of more than 7,500?
 
UKIP 6476 22.7%
Con  6412 22.5%
Ind   6344 22.3%
LD    5588 19.6%
Lab   2005  7.0%
Grn   1669  5.9%

By way of comparison in next door Eastbourne the Lib Dems topped the poll, leading the Conservatives by 6% and UKIP by 8%.

Was there a worse result in a Lib Dem held seat last Thursday?

Source: Vote UK Forum

Good luck to Lib Dem candidates - you'll need it

Thursday 2nd May is county election day (and some unitaries and Doncaster's Mayor). 

Expectations in the party (and Westminster circles) are that the dismal Lib Dem performance in 2011 and 2012 are now a thing of the past as things have bottomed out and the electorate are beginning to see positives about the Lib Dems time in government.

Some are even foolish enough to predict Lib Dem gains.

My rule of thumb is to take the most pessimistic projections and then add significantly more losses.  At each round of elections so far the Lib Dems have lost around half of the seats defended and there are precious few reasons to believe things are much different this time.

UKIP of course are the joker in the pack - and much of the reason for Lib Dem false confidence.  They are likely to come third in the popular vote and - if so - a significant blow to Clegg's leadership of the Lib Dems.

But with ComRes suggesting UKIP are on 22% they are approaching the level in a four party race where they will begin to win substantial numbers of seats. 

So what if the Lib Dems come fourth in the number of seats too?  Surely Clegg couldn't survive that?

Farage claims UKIP standing in more seats than Lib Dems

So he says in tonight's London Evening Standard.

Interestingly his article opens with a distinctly liberal appeal:

"The great cliché — that all politics is local — will be played out next Thursday when all the shire counties of England, Anglesey and a tranche of urban boroughs go to the polls...The only way to get the entrenched political class to listen to the legitimate concerns of a disenfranchised electorate is to do the one thing career politicians cannot deal with: take away their votes, their jobs and their expenses."
  

Lib Dem defamation u-turn farce

Yesterday Lib Dem MPs were going to support Conservative amendments to the Defamation Bill designed to protect large corporation's ability to threaten individuals with punative libel damages.  A party spokesman gave the Independent a bizarre quote, “Unfortunately we are in a Coalition and this was one of those areas where we could not get our Conservative colleagues to agree with us.”

Today Lib Dem Voice reports that Julian Huppert has pursuaded Conservative Ministers to put back in the bill the clauses that Lib Dem MPs voted to take out 24 hours earlier,

If this was an isolated incident of elbowarseitis then it probably wouldn't matter.  But it's not.  It follows in footsteps of Lib Dem MPs backing for secret courts in the teeth of opposition from the party (and manifesto commitments) and the internet snooping farce - which is soon to make an unwelcome return.

It is clear there are a cadre of advisers at the top of the party with a tin-ear for the key tenets of party beliefs and who take whatever nonsense the civil service tells them as gospel.  And they are allowed to get away with it by MPs who are enjoying the trappings of power too much and have suspended both their critical faculties and belief in the political nous of the party.

There were always going to be difficult decisions as a result of entering coalition with the Tories - but Clegg's strategy always was to use the experience of government as a platform to win new support - 'Clegg Lib Dems'.  So far all that has happened is that a large chunk of the party has been so disillusioned by MPs support for illiberal measures it has drifted off, preceded by many 2010 Lib Dem voters and much of the party's councillor base.  And so far there is precious little evidence of them being replaced by these 'Clegg Lib Dems'. 

Without significant change in attitudes (and almost certainly personnel) at the top of the party - there will be precious few left to fight the election in 2015.  Further seat losses in the county elections (and particularly slipping behind UKIP in the popular vote) will take the party one stage closer to the point where it ceases to be able to function as any sort of election fighting force.  The question is will what's left of the party allow that to continue?

County elections UKIP just 33 behind Lib Dems...

...in candidates that is.  The Vote UK forum statto - Mark Senior - a Sussex Lib Dem number cruncher has worked out from hundreds of council websites that the party nominations line up as below:

Con 2,249
Lab 2,165
LDem 1,760
UKIP 1,727
Green 877
BNP 100
TUSC 116
Liberal 11
Meb K 25
Others/Ind 782

All the conditions seem to be in place for the Lib Dems to finish in fourth place in vote share if not seats.  Last time around the estimated Tory share was 35%, Lib Dems 25%, Labour 22% and others 18%.  

It is difficult to see how the Lib Dems can poll anything like that level this time.  And combined with the nature of of the seats being fought - generally in Tory inclined shires - with effectively the same number of candidates as the Lib Dems UKIP could easily poll in the low twenties in the vast majority of the divisions being fought - giving them an estimated national share in the high teens - even if they don't win many seats.

Losing another 200 councillors along with coming fourth in the popular vote would be a firestorm for Nick Clegg's leadership which could fatally damage his ambition to lead the party into the 2015 elections.  We'll see in a few weeks.

Will UKIP stand more candidates than the Lib Dems in May?

With nominations now closed for the county and unitary elections and statements of those nominated starting to be posted by local returning officers it is clear UKIP's boasts about standing large numbers of candidates have proven true.

Vote UK forum has comprehensive threads on the elections on a county by county (and unitary) basis including details of those nominated. And so far it looks like the Lib Dems will come fourth in the number of candidates nominated with UKIP standing more candidates than the party in Lancashire, Derbyshire and Norfolk - and  more worryingly for the the Lib Dems - in Dorset and Devon, traditional strongholds for the party (and where it has MPs).  In the Isle of Wight, where the Lib Dems held the seat until 2001 the party is standing in just seven out of 40 seats with UKIP standing in 29 and even Labour managing to find 23 candidates.

Two years of hollowing out has taken its toll and the collapse in membership means the pool of those able (let alone willing) to stand has been squashed.  Clegg and the leadership cannot ignore the party any more.  Issues like secret courts - while having almost no impact on the wider voting public - are touchstone issues for party members and activists.  If Lib Dem members are supposed to be 'on message, in volume, over time' then Clegg has to pay more attention to them.  It's a two way street.  Why should party members work to help get MPs elected (and win local elections) if the MPs ignore their views and do things totally at odds to the principles of the party?

While Clegg will no doubt point to the fact that the Lib Dems will return more county councillors than UKIP, the fact they have more candidates will boost UKIP's share of the popular vote and must make it possible the Lib Dems could come fourth in vote share - and that would be a result that shifted the tectonic plates of British politics.

Sandra Gidley to make return to front line politics?

According to the Statements of Persons Nominated for Hampshire County Council one Sandra Gidley is standing for the Lib Dems in the unusually named Romsey Extra division.

Friday favourite 98

It's back.  So here is a catchy little number from Kenya and a slick political ad from the Jubilee Coaliton.  With almost all the votes counted it looks like Uhuru Kenyatta will win - the Independent Boundaries and Electoral Commission will declare tomorrow at 11am (8am GMT) - whether he has met the constitutional requirement of 50%+1 of the total votes cast, along with 25% of the vote in at least 24 counties.

Kenyan Daily Nation election results live feed:

Here