Eastleigh signals the beginning of the end for Clegg not the end of the beginning

The Lib Dem victory in the Eastleigh by-election has been widely signalled as the start of the Lib Dems' fightback and an acceptance that Nick Clegg's strategy in government is beginning to pay off.

But even before this weekend's conference rebellion on secret courts and high profile resignations by Jo Shaw and Dinah Rose, this analysis was wrong.

Eastleigh was no victory for Clegg or his strategy (if he has one) in government.  It was a victory for local activism - built up over the years - standing up for local people, doing the right thing by them where possible and explaining why sometimes you can't.  Clegg's hopeless responses as the Rennard storm engulfed him and the party were nearly responsible for throwing the seat away, when instead he should have been giving the local campaigners the cover they needed and deserved.

Because Eastleigh wasn't lost (when by all reasonable political analyses it should have been) - Clegg has been able to claim victory and in his latest missive to members talks about 'keep winning'.  But as this weekend's conference rejection of the leadership's illiberal support for secret justice, Eastleigh was a victory for the party's footsoldiers - and they know it.  Activists know that they - not Clegg - hold the key to the party's future success.

And that means Clegg's future is now out of his hands.  He cannot afford to carry on blithely ignoring the party in pursuit of some soggy centrist governance - like he has over secret courts.  The party is nothing if not liberal and it is demanding concrete liberal gains in government from his leadership.

This attitude is summed up by former Cambridge MP, David Howarth, who said of the secret courts issue, "This is not about policy or about deals: it is about who we are. This bill does nothing to help the security services to gain more information or foil more plots. All it does is give them an unfair advantage in cases where they are accused of kidnapping and torture. Again, anyone who cannot see that is fundamentally wrong and not liberal."

The party is now demanding red meat from its side of the government.  If it doesn't get it soon it will come for its pound of flesh - in the form of Clegg's leadership. 

You can read Jo Shaw's resignation speech here.

The Rennard crisis from afar

The Lib Dems have been hit by a fire storm in the run up to vital elections on Thursday - not just in Eastleigh but in a number of local by-elections including the very marginal Berrylands in Kingston.

I've just watched the closing statements of the second ever Presidential debate in Kenya - where more than 14 million voters go to the polls a week today - and the minutiae of the scandal seems somewhat irrelevant.  Elections in Kenya are closely fought and last time round ended in a bout of ethnic violence that killed 1,300 and disposessed many thousands of others.  And the repercussions of which are still troubling Kenya today.

But what the Rennard crisis does show is that small volunteer organisations - dominated by a few big and professional personalities - have an inbalance in power and influence and when you add in tribal loyalties create an atmosphere where ranks easily close around the key figures.


But there is a longstanding problem in the party - wider than just the Rennard allegations and how they may or may not have been dealt with - that we really do not value the input of our members and supporters properly. Most local parties only use people as delivery or canvassing machines, a small clique carry on running the local party and new ideas are frowned upon. 

Nationally the party makes almost no effort to engage with the membership - other than to ask them for cash. Our heamorrage of membership post coalition has been exacerbated by the way we treat our wider membership. So I hope that whatever comes out of the specific investigation also leads to a wider debate about how we value and enthuse our membership in future.

Blogging from Africa...

...I'm off to East Africa for three weeks (for work) - conveniently missing the by election campaigns in Berrylands and Eastleigh (and no doubt some interesting revelations about the Papal succession).  I'm sure these will be covered by other esteemed Lib Dem bloggers.  But please bear with me if blogging is even less frequent than usual (although the content might be more interesting!).