Friday favourite 98

It's back.  So here is a catchy little number from Kenya and a slick political ad from the Jubilee Coaliton.  With almost all the votes counted it looks like Uhuru Kenyatta will win - the Independent Boundaries and Electoral Commission will declare tomorrow at 11am (8am GMT) - whether he has met the constitutional requirement of 50%+1 of the total votes cast, along with 25% of the vote in at least 24 counties.

Kenyan Daily Nation election results live feed:

Here

Kenya election last update

It's only the last update because of the slowness of the count, but it is pretty clear that Kenyatta is going to win - whether by enough to get over the 50%+1 hurdle on the first round is slightly more contentious.  And because I have to go back to the UK in a few hours I won't be able to give any more updates.   So enjoy if you can the last one...

Kenyatta: 2,800,000 (53%)
Odinga 2,200,000 (42%)
Mudavadi 150,000 (3%)
Kenneth 21,000 (0.6%)

Votes counted: 5,250,000

Around 5,750,000 more votes to be counted.

 

It's clear Raila Odinga is closing the gap slowly - but there seems almost no way he can do it quickly enough to win.

 

My best guess for the result is Odinga 43.6; Kenyatta 50.2 - thus avoiding a run off.

Kenya elections lunchtime update

With more than a third of the votes now counted and a robust defence from the IEBC about the validity of both the voting and counting processes, the results appear to be following a steady pattern.

Kenyatta: 2,535,000(54%)
Odinga 1,943,000 (41%)
Mudavadi 131,500 (3%)
Kenneth 27,300 (0.6%)

Votes counted: 4,750,000

Around 6,250,000 more votes to be counted.

Kenyan election update 9.30am

The race has slightly narrowed overnight, but with more than a quarter of the votes now counted it looks like Kenyatta is going to be the fourth President of the Republic of Kenya.

With 3.5 million votes counted Kenyatta has 1,920,000 (54%) and Odinga 1,470,000 (41%)and Mudavadi 100,000 (3%).  If Kenyatta maintains his 50%+1 share he avoids a run-off in April.

Kenyan count update 2.30am

Counting has become painfully slow - possibly due to the fact that the senior management of the Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission have gone home to bed.

Their absence has allowed the CORD alliance to go on the attack claiming serious flaws in the election process - enough in their view to change the order of the race.

Strangely, this mirrors their attacks in the 2007 election when they also claimed they lost due to irregularities.  More of that in the morning no doubt.

Kenyan election 11.30pm update

With the late closing polling stations only just shutting, counting has been slow, but Kenyatta's lead is narrowing slightly:

Kenyatta: 715,000(56%)
Odinga 510,000 (40%)
Mudavadi 19,200(2.5%)
Kenneth 4,200 (0.5%)

Votes counted: 1,250,000

Around 10,000,000 more votes to be counted.

Kenya election results update 8.30pm

Kenyatta: 485,000(57%)
Odinga 328,000 (38%)
Mudavadi 19,200(2.5%)
Kenneth 4,200 (0.5%)

Votes counted: 850,000

Around 10,500,000 more votes to be counted.

Kenyan count 7pm update

Results coming in thick and fast as late opening polling stations begin to close and report their results.  More than 400,000 votes have now been counted and Kenyatta is leading Odinga by 230,000 to 170,000.  In third place is Mudavadi with 7,500 (less than 2%) and Nairobi housewives favourite Peter Kenneth is fourth with 2,200 (0.5%) - but with almost no counting from Nairobi and the suburbs.

Kenyan election results trickle in

With many polling stations remaining open past 5pm (EAT) to deal with the queues of voters who are still waiting to vote, most of the counts haven't started.  But from the the 2.5% of presidential votes so far counted and reported Kenyatta is leading Odinga 68,000 to 57,000. 

Turnout is reported at 86%.  But it is very early days.

Kenya goes to vote

And they appear to be fed up with western reporting of their election according to this from the Daily Nation...

Foreign reporters armed and ready to attack Kenya

Kenya was braced at the crossroads yesterday amidst growing concern that the demand for clichés is outstripping supply...

Kenyan election campaign winds up

Kenyans go to the polls on Monday and with campaigning banned tomorrow the two leading campaigns held their final campaign rallies in Nairobi.  I'm not sure these pictures really do the scale of the Jubilee Coalition's final rally in Uhuru Park justice - where a quarter of a million people spent more than six hours listening to political speeches.  It puts Nick Clegg's town hall meetings into perspective:

ICC Kenyatta case begins to crumble

News out of Kenya in the last couple of days suggests that the International Criminal Court's case against Kenyan Presidential contender Uhuru Kenyatta is beginning to unwind.

Firstly, the prosecutor has asked the court to put back the trial until August to give them more time to prepare.  

And secondly, they have referred the case against the former Head of Kenya's Civil Service Francis Muthaura back to the pre-trial chamber due to a key witness being found to be too unreliable for use as a prosecution witness in the upcoming trial.

But strangely the prosecutors haven't done the same for Kenyatta - even though Muthaura's and Kenyatta's cases are in effect the same case.  The key witness who is now too unreliable for Muthuara is the same (and only) key witness for Kenyatta too. 

Lead defence counsel for Kenyatta - Stephen Kay QC - said, “Mr Kenyatta and Mr Muthaura are the defendants in the same case. Therefore, if the Prosecutor has found the case against Mr Muthaura so weak that it must be returned to the pre-trial chamber for re-examination, so it must be done for Mr. Kenyatta."

The FT today also covers the case.

The Rennard crisis from afar

The Lib Dems have been hit by a fire storm in the run up to vital elections on Thursday - not just in Eastleigh but in a number of local by-elections including the very marginal Berrylands in Kingston.

I've just watched the closing statements of the second ever Presidential debate in Kenya - where more than 14 million voters go to the polls a week today - and the minutiae of the scandal seems somewhat irrelevant.  Elections in Kenya are closely fought and last time round ended in a bout of ethnic violence that killed 1,300 and disposessed many thousands of others.  And the repercussions of which are still troubling Kenya today.

But what the Rennard crisis does show is that small volunteer organisations - dominated by a few big and professional personalities - have an inbalance in power and influence and when you add in tribal loyalties create an atmosphere where ranks easily close around the key figures.


But there is a longstanding problem in the party - wider than just the Rennard allegations and how they may or may not have been dealt with - that we really do not value the input of our members and supporters properly. Most local parties only use people as delivery or canvassing machines, a small clique carry on running the local party and new ideas are frowned upon. 

Nationally the party makes almost no effort to engage with the membership - other than to ask them for cash. Our heamorrage of membership post coalition has been exacerbated by the way we treat our wider membership. So I hope that whatever comes out of the specific investigation also leads to a wider debate about how we value and enthuse our membership in future.

West begins to roll back from Kenya sanctions

Kenya goes to the polls a week on Monday and it looks like it will go down to the wire between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta.  Kenyatta, of course, is due to defend himself sometime in April against charges of crimes against humanity at the ICC regarding post election violence in 2007. 

This has lead to the accusation that western powers won't do business with ICC indictees - which has unleashed a whole variety of diplomatic issues as well as, crucially, being seen by many Kenyans as the old colonial forces trying to tell them how to run their country.  It also goes against the principle of being assumed innocent until proven guilty.

But this morning a letter signed by 21 western ambassadors and high commissioners - including the UK, US and EU appeared in the Kenyan Daily Nation - but sadly not in their online version - to the effect that their previous discussion of what would happen if Kenyatta were to win was wrong.

Danish Ambassador, Geert Andersen, wrote 'The choice of Kenya's leaders in the election is up to the Kenyan people alone. We do not endorse any candidate over another.'

Today's opinion polls show the race to be a statistical deadheat,  Back in January Odinga had a 12 point lead.

White mischief at the Norfolk Hotel

Yesterday I went to Nairobi's Norfolk Hotel - a 1930s colonial era building which wouldn't have been out of place in Michael Radford's 1987 film White Mischief. As these pictures hopefully show.

Searching for the middle ground in Kenya?

Spotted at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Nairobi...