Whither Witney?

Some photos from a visit to Witney earlier in the week on a glorious autumnal day.

A busy weekday morning in the Lib Dem HQ in Corn Street, Witney.











The sort of street that Bob and Thelma from the Likely Lads would live in if it was 250 miles North.

A military transport plane heads towards RAF Fairford (or possibly Brize Norton?)

 

The sort of idylic rural home that makes producers of TV lifestyle programmes swoon.








So how are the Lib Dems going to do?  The truth is I have no inside information and what follows is hunch and supposition.

Witney is the sort of rock solid seat that always returns Conservatives so given the state of the various opposition parties a comfortable hold should be on the cards.  But the Lib Dems have fought a vigorous campaign from fourth place and are likely to leapfrog Labour and the Greens as a result.  But from my (albeit) brief visit both reds and greens maintain significant pockets of support which means they are unlikely to be squeezed down to the sort of levels that hand the anti-Tory mantle solely to the Lib Dems.  How well the Lib Dems do - and there is some talk that they may even challenge to win - will inevitably depend on how many Green and Labour voters lend their votes to the Lib Dems later today.

But the Tories are sufficently entrenched that how the opposition parties line up shouldn't matter to their prospects of defending the seat.  And in that the election feels very much like another recent high profile Oxfordshire by-election - Henley in 2008.  That saw another vigorous Lib Dem campaign (and a Labour lost deposit) and certain over-excited talk in the Lib Dems of snatching the seat from the Tories.  And there I remember the sense of disappointment when the result came in that the Lib Dems had marginally increased their share to 28%.

However - given the party's collapse in the Clegg years - 28% now would be (and would be seen as) something of a victory.  Mark Pack has a useful guide to judge the Lib Dem performance. 

Review of the year 2013

It's the last day of the year, so it's time to look back on the events that have caught the attention of this blog over the past 12 months.  So here's the Living on Words third annual review:

In January Michael Gove visited a local Girls' Schools and talked about boys toilets

In February, this blog spent some time reporting on the presidential elections in Kenya, but also managed to highlight a great footballing coincidence.

March saw the 50th anniversary of the Beeching Report as well as the introduction of secret courts - in the face of a campaign by Lib Dem activists.

In April Margaret Thatcher died and Tom Lehrer didn't.

May saw another local election disaster for the Lib Dems, but also a major split in the ranks of Brighton Greens.

In June I criticised the campaign being run by the Better Together campaign against Scottish independence.

July saw the death of one of Britain's finest footballers - Lawrie Reilly.

In August some interesting European stats appeared to show a connection between unemployment rates and pay rises - with the UK trading off lower unemployment for lower pay.

In September Labour peer George Foulkes wanted a public subsidy for bankrupt Hearts FC.

October saw the death of Lou Reed and the castration of a dog by Zac Goldsmith's mum.

The tendency of Liberal Democrats to reach for nanny was once again revealed in November.

And finally in December the 'most middle class petition ever' was submitted to the Kingston Guardian on the subject of Christmas trees in Surbiton.

Happy new year!

Bumper by election nights 19

Last week saw the Lib Dem vote collapse by 35%  in the one ward they were defending and failing to stand in the other three constests.

In the last council by-elections of the year there are nine contests today.  Labour defend two rock solid seats in Bolton and Torfaen, the Tories defend six and there is an Independent vacancy in the Black Isle Ward of Highland Council.

Once again UKIP are standing more candidates than the Lib Dems - eight to seven, but both beat Labour who are only standing in six contests. 

Wards to watch are in West Sussex (Haywards Heath East) where UKIP will be looking to win the division where they were they were less than 150 behind the Tories in the county elections and the Lib Dems came fourth in a seat they were defending.  UKIP may also have hopes in the linked Mid Sussex district vacancy but which is a good deal safer for the blues.

And in another County/District double vacancy the Scotter/Scotter Rural in West Lindsay/Lincolnshire UKIP will again be looking to build on good county results, but may be hampered by recent splits in their group,

There are also three by-elections early in the new year - a rare Tuesday by-election on 7th January in the former Lib Dem seat of Swinton South in Salford where the party is not standing but a former Lib Dem councillor is now standing for the Greens.

And two days later there are two contests - in the split Con/Lab ward of Haverhill East where Labour should pick up the Tory vacancy and in a safe Tory seat in Tonbridge and Malling where the Lib Dems are failing to contest.



 

By election night 12

Last week's byelections were pretty predictable - with Labour picking up, as expected, Shepshed West in Charnwood from the Tories and holding their other wards. 

The Lib Dems held their Norfolk seat with a swing from UKIP and improved their position - but only back to 2010 levels - in Waterlooville in Hampshire.  But they failed to make any inroads in Bovey Ward in Teignbridge (a target seat) where the Tories gained a 6% swing in their favour.  The weakness of the party in large parts of the country was exposed by derisory votes in Loughborough (=26) where the party finished behind some BNP splinter faction, Wigan (=19 and seventh place) and coming behind the Greens in the Wirral and West Sussex.

This week there is a single contest (in the loosest sense of the word) in the Pillgwenlly ward in Newport , South Wales, where Labour should have no problems holding their seat.

By-election night 9

Last week provided that rare thing in current local by-elections - a good night for the Lib Dems with the party winning two out of the four contests.  Labour rather surprisingly picked up an independent seat in East Lindsey, with the Tories easily holding off a Green challenge in St Edmundsbury.

This week's eight contests highlight the weakness of the Lib Dems in much of the country with the party only standing three candidates and failing to find a candidate in Salford'sWeaste and Seedley ward - a ward the party held all three seats until 2010 (although it polled just 58 votes in a by-election earlier this year).  In next door Manchester an old mate John Bridges is flying the Lib Dem flag in a ward where the party used to be solidly second, but its vote has collapsed since coalition - coming in fourth behind even the Tories last year.

But perhaps the most interesting contest is in Glasgow Govan.  Not only is it a super tight SNP/Labour marginal a grand total of 14 candidates (including Scottish Lib Dem blogger and drug policy reformer, Ewan Hoyle) are standing.

By-election night 8

After last week's ten by-elections there are just four this week.  And two are Lib Dem defences - in Aylesbury Vale and Taunton Deane.  The Oakfield ward in Aylesbury is a marginal Lib Dem/Tory contest but in an area UKIP outpolled all comers in May's county elections. And the Taunton Halcon ward is traditionally safe for the Lib Dems, but with UKIP coming up on the rails in second last May. 

Once again UKIP are standing in every ward - along with Labour and the Tories - with the Lib Dems in three out of four.

UKIP should pick up the independent vacancy in East Lindsey like they did in a similar vacancy a few weeks ago and it will be interesting to see what progress the second placed Greens make in the Abbeygate ward of St Edmundsbury.

Last week UKIP once again significantly outpolled the Lib Dems scoring somewhere between 15 and 30% almost everywhere.  The one exception was in Mole Valley where they were restricted to 13% in a winning Lib Dem campaign that increased the party's majority over the Tories.

More evidence of UKIP's appeal to lost Lib Dem voters came in the contests in Sevenoaks where UKIP won a seat the Lib Dems used to hold before their previous sitting councillor switched to independent.  And in Coleford in the Forest of Dean UKIP polled 29% - almost exactly matching the 25% the Lib Dems polled four years previously.

By election night 7

Lib Dem Voice had a partial round up of last week's results - which saw the Lib Dems losing both seats they were defending - Labour picking up Oxford North and the Tories in Woking.  But in a not unsurprising result the Tories lost to UKIP in Canterbury in a ward they were just 83 in front the last time it was fought in May.

This evening Vote UK reports another bumper crop of ten by-elections.  There's a distinctly southern bias to the contests with eight out of the ten in the south and south west of England and just two in the north - in Blackpool and Barnsley.  But Labour are defending five, with the Tories four and the Lib Dems just one - in the delighfully named Mickelham, Westhumble and Pixham ward of Mole Valley dictrict in Surrey.

Once again UKIP are standing more candidates than the Lib Dems (10:7).  Labour are also standing in seven and the Tories once again field a full slate.

There are three wards of interest for Lib Dems including the previously mentioned Mole Valley contest which the Lib Dems gained marginally from the Tories in 2011.  The Crockenhill and Well Hill ward in Sevenoaks was solidly Lib Dem until 2011, when they failed to stand and an Independent picked it up unopposed until Labour won it in a by election last March  where again the Lib Dems didn't field a candidate.  With the party finally standing again - it will be interesting to see what sort of vote it can recover.

The blue remembered hills of the Forest of Dean provide two contests - a very safe Tory seat in Redmarley and a more interesting contest in Coleford East caused by the death of a Labour councillor.   The ward has traditionally swung between the reds and the blues until 2009 when in a by-election an independent won it in a tight four way contest where the Lib Dems came second.  In 2011 Labour narrowly won two seats, with an independent taking the third from the Tories.  The Lib Dems improved their vote, but came in last.  UKIP did well in the Forest in the county elections earlier this year and with an independent forming the fifth runner 30% ought to be enough to win.

And the Storrington division of West Sussex could also provide an indication of the extent of public support or opposition to fracking with the intervention of a specifically anti-fracking Green (and former Lib Dem councillor) in a tightish Tory/UKIP contest.

Council by-election night 6

Four by-elections this evening according to Vote UK - with the Lib Dems standing in just two - a tricky defence in Oxford North where the party came third the last time the ward voted and in a Tory seat in Canterbury.  Labour, Tories and even the Greens are fighting all four and UKIP three.

In addition to the contest in Oxford, the Seasalter ward in Canterbury may prove of interest with UKIP just 83 behind in 2013.  Labour should hold comfortably in a six way battle in Dudley and the Tories in East Hampshire in a ward where the Lib Dems were once just 10 votes behind and are not even standing this time.

Council by-election night 5

Vote UK has a full round up of last week's elections and Lib Dem Voice reports more on the one bright spot of the evenings results - the Lib Dem gain in Wadebridge in Cornwall. 

The Lib Dems failed to gain Ely East with their vote falling nearly 9% since 2011 and otherwise came behind Labour and UKIP everywhere they stood - with the exception of Boston Fenside where they outpolled Labour 87 to 75 (UKIP gained the seat as expected).  In total 1,012 people voted Lib Dem in the six wards (out of ten) they stood in - fewer than half the number (2,129) who voted UKIP (who at least found candidates in all ten contests).  The party also gifted the Greens a win in Torridge by not defending their vacancy.  The Greens vote rose 25% - almost the exact share of the Lib Dems previously.

This week there's five contests - a county/district double vacancy in Hitchin, Herts, a unitary contest in Dunstable, Central Bedforshire and district contests in Wreake Villages, Charnwood, Leics and in Frithville in East Lindsey, Lincs.

Once again UKIP are standing more candidates (four) than the Lib Dems (three).  The Tories are standing everywhere with Labour not fielding a candidate in Frithville - which becomes a straight Tory/UKIP fight - which the kippers should pick up given the independent who resigned outpolled the Tory two-to-one the last time it was fought.

Labour should hold both the Hitchin seats caused by the death of their sitting councillor and will have hopes of picking up Dunstable from the Independent from third place (but only 200 behind).  Charnwood should be safe Tory.

Brighton Greens civil war update

Earlier this month I blogged on the quite extraordinary splits in Brighton's ruling Green Party. Since then, instead of trying to come together, the splits have deepened and their councillors have indulged in some quite spectacularly stupid behaviour.

The Argus reports that rebel Green councillors: "launched a failed coup to remove Coun Kitcat (Council Leader)", reporting that: "One of the rebels Councillor Duncan said he was one of six Green councillors who walked out of the council chamber rather than support Coun Kitcat’s re-election as council leader."

In an extraordinarily stupid political move another of the rebels, Cllr Alex Phillips, tried - via Twitter - to get Labour to vote with the rebels to oust Cllr Kitcat.  Unsurprisingly the exchange ended up in the local paper:

And amazingly, the Argus reports she has avoided disciplinary action for this move.

Councillor Duncan's thoughts on the split can be read in a gloriously spartist post on his personal blog:

"A prominent and much respected local councillor, Alex Phillips, attempted to build a consensus across the party divide between the Green Party, which she is a member of, and the Labour Party, to prevent a rogue Green administration..."

Brighton and Hove Greens attack each other over equal pay

Brighton and Hove Green Party have issued an extraordinary press release attacking their own City administration (leader - the wonderfully named Cllr Jason Kitkat) over plans to end sexism in council pay structures.

The plans equalise historic pay structures so that female staff are paid the same as their male counterparts and as a result a small number of staff will lose out - for which they will receive compensation.

But this isn't enough for the watermelon faction in the local Greens who have attacked the council and vowed to  campaign against it.

Local Green MP, Caroline Lucas said, "Since the negotiations began, I have made my opposition to any cuts in take home pay very clear. I am therefore disappointed that, whilst some will gain from this process, a number will face a reduction in the money they have to live off each week.

"This is unacceptable.  With the support of the local Green Party, I have pledged to campaign against proposals made to workers that will lead to a loss of pay."


 

What is going on in North Richmond?

A question usually answered with a resounding - meh...

But a routine by-election hold by Zac Goldsmith's well (extra virgin olive) oiled Tory machine on the day Boris won a second term has turned into something much more interesting.

Apparently a large number of fake Lib Dem leaflets were delivered from about 10pm until about 1am on eve of poll which claimed the Lib Dems were to build new tower blocks full of immigrants, social housing tenants and unemployed people.

Other than the three main English parties, there was a Green and an eccentric independent - Marc Leslie Cranfield-Adams who has been both a Lib Dem and a Tory (and probably UKIP too).

What used to be called special branch have been called in to investigate and they are apparently using the full force of New Labour anti terrorism laws to seize both Council and private individual's CCTV footage of the deliverers.

Given the logistics required a scanner, a desk top publishing package and access to mass printing/copying facilities as well as sufficient volunteers to deliver the stuff in a couple of hours, there can't be a huge number of suspects...

...so who is going to be collared?

Green Party leader caught lying

Perusing the Scotsman's election coverage I came across this article.

Patrick Harvie is an experienced parliamentarian and leader of the Scottish Green Party. He, like the rest of his party, are always keen to highlight their honesty, caring and niceness and contrast it with the typical deceitful mainstream politicians. In the introduction to his party's manifesto Mr Harvie writes, 'We have consistently brought a fresh approach to politics...Greens have argued for years that business-as-usual politics could not last.'

So it comes as somewhat surprising to see see him engaging in business-as-usual politics by dissembling with the rest of them.

Let's be clear Vince Cable and the coalition government are not privatising the Post Office network - they are investing more than £1bn in it and protecting it for the future by looking at mutualisation (a Green party principle one would have thought).

The Royal Mail is a separate loss making letter and parcel delivery business.

Either Patrick Harvie and the Scottish Greens are too stupid to know the difference or they do know the difference and are happy to lie to Scottish voters by deliberately confusing two different policies. Either way it is a pretty good reason to reject them and their so-called 'fresh alternative'.