Zac Goldsmith claims credit for something that doesn't exist

I always enjoy receiving an occasional email from my former MP Zac Goldsmith.  He has managed to maintain seamless email communication through various guises - Cameroon Liberal Tory, May loyalist Tory, Independent airport campaigner and finally 'Strong and Stable' Brexit Tory - without appearing to trouble those pesky data protection rules at any time.  (Or indeed his own sense of self awareness).

But regardless of this (no doubt Brussels inspired) pettyfogging data protection bureaucracy - I was intrigued to read his claim that: "Here in Canbury, I have worked hard for local residents over the past six years... I campaigned with the Council to deliver free 30 minute parking to help our small shops..."

The thing is there aren't any 30 minute free parking zones in Canbury.   

Now I'm sure this is an honest mistake and not deliberate misinformation on Goldsmith junior's behalf.  Because someone once said, "Deliberately misinforming people is worse than anything that happened in the expenses scandal, because it goes to the heart of democracy. When you're prepared to trick people two weeks before they go to the polls, that is the very lowest kind of politics."

That someone being er... Zac Goldsmith.

Two by-elections summed up in two victory speeches

I've been meaning to blog on the Richmond Park by-election and some of the nonsense talked about the Lib Dem victory being a result of a putative 'Progressive Alliance' - whatever that is.  But as usual the estimable Jonathan Calder got there before me.

So instead I thought I'd share the declarations and acceptance speeches of the Richmond Park and Sleaford and North Hykeham by-elections which I think sum up both campaigns and the qualities of the new MPs for both seats.

Three questions for Zac Goldsmith

In what appears to be a series of orchestrated announcements between Zac Goldsmith and the Conservative heirarchy we now have a by-election in Richmond Park without an official Tory candidate.  Goldsmith has been installed as the bookies favourite standing as an independent on a straight anti-Heathrow expansion ticket.

But despite his frequent assertation that he is an independently minded MP he votes with the Tories more than nine times out of ten.  In fact since we had a full blooded right wing majority Tory government in 2015 he has rebelled just five times out of 146 votes - less than 3.5% of the time.

So, I have three straightforward questions to ask:

1. If he wins the by-election will he take the Tory whip and, if not, will he caucus with his pal UKIP MP Douglas Carswell?
2. Will he seek the Tory nomination in 2020?
3. Will he back Theresa May in a confidence vote?

Whither Witney?

Some photos from a visit to Witney earlier in the week on a glorious autumnal day.

A busy weekday morning in the Lib Dem HQ in Corn Street, Witney.











The sort of street that Bob and Thelma from the Likely Lads would live in if it was 250 miles North.

A military transport plane heads towards RAF Fairford (or possibly Brize Norton?)

 

The sort of idylic rural home that makes producers of TV lifestyle programmes swoon.








So how are the Lib Dems going to do?  The truth is I have no inside information and what follows is hunch and supposition.

Witney is the sort of rock solid seat that always returns Conservatives so given the state of the various opposition parties a comfortable hold should be on the cards.  But the Lib Dems have fought a vigorous campaign from fourth place and are likely to leapfrog Labour and the Greens as a result.  But from my (albeit) brief visit both reds and greens maintain significant pockets of support which means they are unlikely to be squeezed down to the sort of levels that hand the anti-Tory mantle solely to the Lib Dems.  How well the Lib Dems do - and there is some talk that they may even challenge to win - will inevitably depend on how many Green and Labour voters lend their votes to the Lib Dems later today.

But the Tories are sufficently entrenched that how the opposition parties line up shouldn't matter to their prospects of defending the seat.  And in that the election feels very much like another recent high profile Oxfordshire by-election - Henley in 2008.  That saw another vigorous Lib Dem campaign (and a Labour lost deposit) and certain over-excited talk in the Lib Dems of snatching the seat from the Tories.  And there I remember the sense of disappointment when the result came in that the Lib Dems had marginally increased their share to 28%.

However - given the party's collapse in the Clegg years - 28% now would be (and would be seen as) something of a victory.  Mark Pack has a useful guide to judge the Lib Dem performance. 

Kingston Council consultation farce

Conservative run Kingston Council likes to consult its residents.  So much so it launched more than a dozen important consultations over the summer holidays.  This of course has the advantage of making it as difficult as possible for residents to participate.  And when your council leader enjoys a symbiotic relationship with some of the biggest property developers in the country, local residents just get in the way of maximising corporate profits.

So I was somewhat surprised to receive the other day a letter from the council asking for my views about a local housing issue.

The letter however includes a bizarre explanation of council incompetence, "A consultation process took place during April and May this year...Unfortunately residents in two roads, did not receive consultation letters... While this was rectified in August where 140 residents received a consultation pack, unfortunately 20 residents in York Road were still missed ...This has come to light very recently.  We appreciate that this is an unsatisfactory situation..."

One has to wonder just how seriously Kingston Council takes its duty to consult its council tax payers - especially as they have told neighbours they won't engage with them until after the decision is made.

Kingston Tory leader's Cannes flight mystery

Kingston's Tory Council Leader, Kevin Davis is determined to change the face of the Royal Borough with a series of  developments of increasing scale, height and numbers of luxury home and decreasing numbers of affordable homes for local people. 

Kingston's jet setting Council leader

While cutting youth centres and old folks' homes and putting up the council tax he has set up a £4m fund to encourage even more of his developer friends into the borough.  So it was of little surprise that he swanned off to Cannes in March for the annual property and booze fest that is MIPIM spending more than £4,000 of taxpayer's cash in the process.

So what did he get up to during his three day, four night Riviera junket?

According to my FoI request Cllr Davis attended three dinners courtesy of Scape Group, Countryside and the City of London Corporation.  He had drinks with the President of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, a 'think tank' (whatever that may be) with the Mayor followed by lunch, drinks courtesy of Barrett and half an hour with ex England centre half Rio Ferdinand - who was apparently doing some sort of a double act with Housing Minister Brandon Lewis.  Strangely, Ferdinand appears to have no connection with property development whatsoever, so one can only imagine what the purpose of that meeting might have been.

To be fair to Cllr Davis, it wasn't all pleasure he also packed in a large number of meetings with the great and the good of the UK property scene including:

• Countryside Properties - based in Brentwood, Essex
• Berkeley Group - based in Cobham (one junction on the A3 from Kingston)
• Tellon Capital - based in London W1
• British Land - based in London W1 (and currently redeveloping a shopping centre 50 yards from Kingston's Guildhall)
• Atkins Global - based in Chelmsford, Essex
• Public Sector Plc - based in London N3
• Hadley Property Group - based in Covent Garden
• Bouygues Development - based in Canning Town
• Thinking Place - based in Hull
• St William Homes (Berkley) - based in SW8
• Barratt London - based in Tower Hill
• Transport for London - based in Victoria
• U + I - based in Victoria
• Anthology - based in London WC2
• Buro Happold - based in London W1
• Ktesius - based in London W1
• Downing - based in Liverpool
• Lend Lease - based in London NW1
• Ocean Village - appears to be a marina in Southampton
• Scape Group - based in Nottingham

One has to ask whether the same could have been achieved with a couple of zone 1-6 travel cards and a day return or two?

Which brings me neatly on to the most curious revelation - Cllr Davis appears to have forked out (from the public purse) £458.07 for a Nice to Cannes return flight. Now Cannes is a mere 17.5 miles from Nice airport and Cannes airport has no scheduled flights.  However there is a half-hourly helicopter service.

Azure Helicopter offer just such a service stating gushingly:

"Have you always wanted to make an entry in Cannes like a star? How about to land on the Croisette in a helicopter ? To mark the 2016 Film Festival and other events in Cannes ( MIPIM, CANNES LIONS FESTIVAL YACHTING, etc) AZUR HELICOPTER airline offers flights between Nice and Cannes in just 7 minutes, comfortably, and with stunning views on the Croisette!"

And at 160 Euro (+50 for a hold bag) each way the bill is spookily close to £458.07 once converted to good old British pounds.

According to the Cannes or Bust website the express bus takes less than an hour from Nice airport to Cannes and costs just 33 Euro return (or about 20 quid).

So did Cllr Davis 'make an entry in Cannes like a star'?  And did the poor old council tax payer stump up for it?  I think we should be told...

Edit - the kind people at the Kingston's Residents Alliance Facebook page have pointed out Ferdinand does indeed have a property connection through his initiative called the Legacy Foundation. 

Kingston Council seeks illiterate communications chief

The benighted burgers of Kingston, who already stump up the highest Council Tax in London, are soon to stump up a further £60k for a new spin doctor for the Tory administration.

The gushing language declares they are  'looking for someone who is fully conversant with the full range of communications tools'  but with four typos in just six sentences proof reading is clearly not one of them...

Here's the full text:

There has rarely been a more challenging or opportune time to work in local government communications. Seismic changes in the way local government is operating means that it is no longer sufficient to simply tell local people and others what the council is doing - we need to really engage and win peoples support for a shared vision for the local area.

Kingston council has created a new role of Head of Communications to work closely with the Senior Leadership Team and leading members to ensure that the council not only tells it's story but builds real engagement with residents, staff and key partners.

We are looking for someone who is fully conversant with the full range of communications tools from excellent media skills and campaigning ability to the latest digital techniques and innovative ideas on community engagement, but that just gets you to, first base.

To be successful in this role you will be a leader, bridge builder, strategist and true innovator.

Above all you will have an absolute passion for public service and it's ability to improve lives.

If this sounds like you and you ready for the challenge of building the best corporate communication service in local government we would like to hear from you.

So what did the Lib Dems actually stop the Tories doing?

Today's budget rather gives the lie to the Lib Dem 'Scooby Doo' message of 'look what the Tories would have done if it wasn't for the meddling Lib Dems'.

The budget contained  two major public policy changes. Firstly switching the focus from the government subsidising low pay to the government forcing employers to pay a living wage.  And secondly lengthening the period of fiscal consolidation to smooth the public spending cuts.  These two changes would almost certainly (rightly) have been supported by the Lib Dems if they had remained in government (and the latter was basically the party's economic position two months ago).

The fact that both leadership candidates slammed the budget on the basis that the Tories were returning to right wing form without the Lib Dems was as predictable as it is wrong.  And it is extremely worrying for the future of the party that both contenders simply basically rehashed the disasterous Coetzee/Clegg messaging - the messaging that was comprehensively rebuffed by the electorate a few weeks ago.

The Scooby Doo message was ineffective as it relied on people understanding a bunch of imponderables - it's impossible to judge the effects of things that didn't happen.  And it was part of a wider failure of the Clegg leadership of failing to define a distinctive Lib Dem agenda for government meaning people could not tell what part of the coalition policy was down to which party.

But now that Osborne and the Conservatives have comandeered a fairly major part of both the Lib Dem and Labour economic policy and are likely to dominate the economic centrist space for the foreseeable future some rethinking is needed - and fast.

I don't expect Labour to come up with any credible rethink, but the Lib Dems must.  If whoever wins the leadership can't find a new and better vision for the economy that understands the values being promoted by Osborne's budget today, then there is little hope for the party. 

Why we're not better together

Thursday's Scottish referendum looks set to go to the wire and despite the best efforts of the Westminster establishment the last days of scaremongering looks like it has only halted YES's momentum - but has clearly not turned it into any movement for the NO campaign.  So its likely effect is to reduce participation and drive turnout down - particularly from those who don't usually participate in the democratic process.

The pitch of the NO campaign is basically that it is too risky and uncertain for Scotland to take any decisions other than those Westminster, Whitehall and the City of London are happy to give away to the Scots.  The upsurge in YES voting intention didn't change this essential power relationship it only made the list of things the establishment were prepared to give to the Scottish Parliament to determine a bit longer (assuming the Westminster parties can agree an any of it).

The UK remains one of the world's most centralised states - with more than 95% of all public revenues and spending being the responsibility of the Treasury - just 4.4% is raised and accountable to local authorities through the Council Tax.   This bureacratic over centralisation drives out local initiative - in England as much as elsewhere - and contributes to the disconnect between the government and the governed - particularly the further you go from the south east of England.

Now this isn't news and liberals have had a long held belief in political and constitutional reform - and particularly decentralising power to local communities.

So it wasn't surprising that many in the party were confident post 2010 with the Liberal Democrats part of the coalition and with Nick Clegg having responsibility for constitutional reform that progress would have been made in recasting the UK into a more modern decentralised and pluralistic democracy.  Sadly reform of the House of Lords and the voting system have been an abject failure, localism proved nothing more than spin and with MPs snouts in the expenses trough like never before Clegg and the Coalition have failed to make any meaningful progress.

So all that's left of the constitutional reform agenda is the Scottish independence referendum courtesy of the SNP government in Edinburgh.

The break up of the failed centralised UK state and the opportunity to decentralise power - not just to Scotland - but to the parts of England that are being squeezed by the sucking of power and wealth into the south east ought to have been a no-brainer for the Liberal Democrats.  But sadly the current leadership of the party north and south of the border have rejected a 100+ year history of campaigning for Home Rule and turned the Scottish party into an empty vessel of the Labour dominated and Tory funded unionist NO campaign.

When I was a member of the party in Scotland I never counted myself as a unionist and rejected the label vehemently - but that is sadly what they have now turned into - consigning the party to the margins in the post referendum landscape (whatever the result). A more sensible positioning as Scotland's honest broker between the unionists and nationalists would have given the party a role and relevance and made it the fulcrum of bringing both sides together after the vote.

But it is all too clear a NO vote on Thursday will send the message to the Westminster establishment - now sadly including the Liberal Democrats that they can carry on - with a few more tax trinkets thrown to Scotland and a new gimmick or two - such as more executive Mayors - to England's northern conurbations.  The essential power relationship of the UK's unitary state will be unaffected and London and the south east will continue to suck in more and more people and resource.  And that will only encourage the Poujadists of UKIP and promote a narrow and insular  English nationalism that won't be good for any part of the current UK in the long run.

That's why I'm hoping Scots vote YES on Thursday - it's the last remaining hope to bust the system that is so clearly broken.  Voting to stay together is a vote for more of the same.  And that's not in anyone's best interest.

Scottish referendum - yes takes the lead.

With less than a fortnight to go before the Indy referendum Political Betting reports that a YouGov poll puts the Yes campaign in front by a whisker.  I'm not surprised - the shamefully negative and insulting No campaign - funded by Cameron's Tories and run by west central Scotland's Labour mafia has made no case for the union and failed to agree what new powers Scotland will get in the event of a No vote.

The Yes campaign has also been helped by a bit of social media creativity - such as this:

Was Tory Terry Paton a BNP member for 8 years?

According to the leaked BNP membership list from 2009 Terry Paton used his real name, home address and mobile number which is a bit odd for someone who was supposed to be 'undercover'.

Most interestingly is that his name appears in the list entitled 'Apr 01 onwards' suggesting he was a member for at least eight years.

Kingston Conservatives have some serious explaining to do.

The new Lib Dem summer campaign is an admission of failure

I had the dubious priviledge earlier in the week to listen in to Nick Clegg and a couple of his teenage acolytes (who are apparently big in the campaign department these days) launching the party's summer campaign.

It is rather strangely entitled 'A record of delivery' - which sounds like the CD you might buy on the way out of the new Postman Pat movie.  Nick Clegg - with his tin ear to party history - claimed this would be familiar to Lib Dem campaigners - referring to the ALC inspired 'Record of action' - but failing to understand the crucial difference. 

Action is a word used by people on the street - it's what they expect their politicians to take   Delivery is what people who work for the Post Office (or indeed Lib Dem activists) do.

But one big criticism isn't the ugly, soulless (focus grouped) language (or indeed the typos in the document) - it is the fact that the party is now launching a campaign that one of these acolytes - Steve Jolly, the party's 'Head of National Campaigns' - says "Tell(s) voters that we have delivered a Liberal Democrat agenda in government"

I argued as long ago as September 2011 that the big failing of Clegg's strategy was his utter inability to communicate any sort of Liberal Democrat agenda for government.  So it is no wonder over the last four years that voters have decided this is a Tory government in all but name.

So now Clegg and his team are basically wanting what's left of the party to try and recover the ground (in ten months) he has lost over the last four years.  You have to admire his chutzpah if nothing else.  But it is a huge admission that his strategy over the last four years has utterly failed.

The other big criticism is the bit after the 'Record of Delivery'.  The 'Promise of More' works where Lib Dems have dealt with local concerns, campaigned for improvements and can point to solid successes over the years.  Sadly without that public acknowledgement that the party has achieved anything in goverment (which apparently the party's own polling recognises as a major issue) a promise of more sounds simply like a plea to keep Clegg and his dozens of (frightfully bright) advisers in highly paid jobs for another five years. 

And the five policies that form the 'promise of more' are hardly going to set the heather on fire:

• More deficit reduction - but do it fairly
• Further increase in the personal allowance
• New 'fair' rules on immigration
• Write pensioners 'triple lock' into law
• Invest more in education

If that's the best Clegg and his vast team of SPADs can come up with then the game is really up.  It's a pathetic programme that show's he's run out of ideas going forward.  He's put the party in a place where he's trashed its past, failed to communicate any positive present and is now outlining a uninspiring, technocratic future (no doubt aligned again with Cameron's Tories). 

Sorry Nick - your time's up.

Peter Kellner: Lib Dems could slump to 19 MPs in 2015 'meltdown'

In an interesting commentary on the YouGov website, one of the UK's top psephologists - Peter Kellner -  postulates some 2015 election scenarios that see the Lib Dems end up with just 19 MPs.

In it he states:

"Until the recent elections I assumed that the Lib Dems would regain some ground as next year’s election approached. Even if they remained well below the 24% they scored in 2010, most of their MPs would enjoy enough local support to minimise their losses.

"Now I am not so sure. That is, I still think that the Lib Dems could claw their way back to around 14%; but there is now a chance that they will remain stuck on around 8%."
And on 8% - the best scenario for the party is just 23 seats. 

Kellner also turns perceived wisdom on its head that a narrow Labour lead equates to a small overall majority, stating "Labour must also abandon its hopes of winning an overall majority with a narrow lead in the popular vote. Depending on Lib Dem performance and the precise size of the Tories’ sophomore surge, Labour’s lead needs to be at least 3% and possibly 5%."

Kingston Tories in palace coup

In a political coup worthy of Ken Livingstone's ousting of Andrew MacIntosh 24 hours after Labour taking control of the GLC in 1981, Kingston Tories have dumped their election winning leader just seven days after taking contol.

And in a move that will delight local Liberal Democrats, the Tories choice to lead the council is Kevin Davis.  Hapless Davis is well known to Lib Dems beyond the Royal Borough's boundaries - pledging (and failing) to oust David Laws in Yeovil in 2010 - just as he had done to Edward Davey five years earlier.  As a result of his lacklustre campaign in Kingston and Surbiton he was unceremoniously dumped by the voters of Berrylands Ward (scene of the 'Good Life') in 2006.

He is however not new to the leadership of Kingston Council, having been an executive member in the 1998-2002 Tory administration and Leader between 2001-2002 before losing the following election heavily.

As leader, the competence of his administration was in stark contrast to his overblown rhetoric:

He pledged to cut council tax, but under his watch it soared by 50%.  Davis was the first leader of Kingston Council to levy a tax of more than £1,000 a year.

In opposition he attacked the Lib Dems for increasing council staff numbers, failing to realise that under his leadership of the council a record 238 new staff were recruited in 2001/2. (The year the Council Tax hit £1,000).

He also made a fool of himself over several controversial schemes in Berrylands ward -where he attacked the Liberal Democrats for implementing them, when they happened under his watch.

And in a tear jerking post on his blog in 2007 - after losing out in the Tory parliamentary nomination for Kingston and Surbiton he said, "clearly my future no longer lies in Kingston".

But now in a puff piece in the local Kingston Guardian newspaper he is described as a 'PR guru', when in fact he runs a consultancy who seeks planning permission for property speculators.  This includes working for the developers of the controversial Surbiton Filter Beds scheme - which was finally defeated by residents (with the support of Ed Davey and the Lib Dems) after years of campaigning.

It promises to be an interesting few years under his leadership.

Tim Rice backs UKIP

Leading Richmond Park Tory (oh and Oscar winning musician) Sir Tim Rice has left the Conservatives and is backing UKIP - according to this report from the Daily Mail.

Given Zac Goldsmith's apparently genetically driven anti Europeanism, the fact even he can't keep his local Tory Europhobes on board doesn't bode well for the Tory party's ability to win the Euro elections later this year - even in a Conservative association as financially well endowed as Richmond Park...

Has Zac Goldsmith left the Conservatives?

If so it might explain his open letter that he kindly dropped through my door yesterday that calls on the Lib Dems to stop a third runway at Heathrow.

In it Goldsmith calls on the Lib Dems to 'apply maximum pressure on your own local MPs and Ministers to kill of the threat of Heathrow expansion..."

Now given the Conservatives have more than five times the number of MPs of the Lib Dems, have the majority of Cabinet Ministers, including the Chancellor, Transport Secretary, Local Government and Planning Minister, as well as the Mayor of London and are responsible for the Heathrow review it seems a bizarre (if not desperate) call.

He clearly now has so little influence in Conservative party that he is forced to seek allies elsewhere. But if so what is the point in him carrying on as their standard bearer?

Bumper by election nights 19

Last week saw the Lib Dem vote collapse by 35%  in the one ward they were defending and failing to stand in the other three constests.

In the last council by-elections of the year there are nine contests today.  Labour defend two rock solid seats in Bolton and Torfaen, the Tories defend six and there is an Independent vacancy in the Black Isle Ward of Highland Council.

Once again UKIP are standing more candidates than the Lib Dems - eight to seven, but both beat Labour who are only standing in six contests. 

Wards to watch are in West Sussex (Haywards Heath East) where UKIP will be looking to win the division where they were they were less than 150 behind the Tories in the county elections and the Lib Dems came fourth in a seat they were defending.  UKIP may also have hopes in the linked Mid Sussex district vacancy but which is a good deal safer for the blues.

And in another County/District double vacancy the Scotter/Scotter Rural in West Lindsay/Lincolnshire UKIP will again be looking to build on good county results, but may be hampered by recent splits in their group,

There are also three by-elections early in the new year - a rare Tuesday by-election on 7th January in the former Lib Dem seat of Swinton South in Salford where the party is not standing but a former Lib Dem councillor is now standing for the Greens.

And two days later there are two contests - in the split Con/Lab ward of Haverhill East where Labour should pick up the Tory vacancy and in a safe Tory seat in Tonbridge and Malling where the Lib Dems are failing to contest.



 

By-election night 18

Last week saw a Lib Dem near miss in the wonderfully named Splott Ward in Cardiff, where Labour held on by 100 and also comfortably saw off Plaid in Riverside.

In the other city contests Labour held on comfortably in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester with the Lib Dems polling 148 votes in total, but the party did have the - ahem - satisfaction of seeing its vote double in the Glasgow Shettleston contest to 1.4%.

Outside of the cities all the seats changed hands with the Independents gaining from the Tories in Chelmsford, the Tories gaining from Labour in Nuneaton and Bedworth and Labour gaining from the Residents' Association in Dartford.  The Lib Dems didn't stand in the latter two contests and polled just 24 votes in Chelmsford.

This week there are four by-elections with just a single Lib Dem candidate defending a vacancy in split Lib Dem/Tory Iver Village and Richings Park ward in South Buckinghamshire.  The Tories are unopposed in Hambledon and defend in Hornby Castle, Richmondshire.  Labour are defending their Bedworth West stronghold in Warwickshire. UKIP once again stand more candidates than the Lib Dems (and Labour) with a candidate in all the opposed contests.

By-election night 17

An extremely poor set of by-election results for the Lib Dems last week, with the party being significantly outpolled by UKIP everywhere it stood with the exception of Lambeth's Vassal ward.  There the party managed second place - but faced a massive 16.5% swing to Labour - enough to lose it every seat on the council next May.

Eight by-elections this week and for the first time in a few weeks we're back to UKIP standing in more contests than the Lib Dems.  UKIP have a full slate - two more than the Lib Dems - which is all the more impressive given five of the eight contests are in Cardiff, Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester.

And it's the two constests in Cardiff that are likely to be of the most interest - with Labour defending a seat in Riverside where Plaid previously held the seats and another in Splott which was untill 2011 a split Lib Dem/Labour ward and Labour are now defending a majority of less than 400.

It's a sense of deja vu for voters in Manchester's Ancoats and Clayton ward who are returning to the polls just a few weeks after the previous by-election .  The question for the Lib Dems will be can they improve on seventh place and 44 votes in this month's ten way contest?

For the Tories, they face a tricky defence in the marginal South Woodham, Elmwood and Woodvile ward where their majority is just 94 over the local independents.  The by-election was caused by the disqualification of their sitting councillor which is likely to make the defence even trickier.

By election night 16

Last week saw two extremes of Lib Dem performance - a great win against Labour in Golcar in Kirklees and an abject defeat to the Tories in Comberton South Cambridgeshire.


This week there are six contests - three Labour vacancies, two Tory and one SNP - in John Thurso's Caithness and Sutherland constituency.  Needless to say it's the only contest in which the Lib Dems aren't standing. 

The interesting contests are in Lambeth's Vassell ward which in 2010 was a tight Lib Dem/Labour contest where both parties won seats in a split ward.  I can't see it being that close this time.  The other interesting battle is in Wakefield's Horbury and South Ossett ward where a marginal Tory/Labour ward has recently been won by increasing margins by the reds.  Labour should hold, but the size of their majority may be indicative of whether the Tories are making progress in the northern English towns.