In an interesting commentary on the YouGov website, one of the UK's top psephologists - Peter Kellner - postulates some 2015 election scenarios that see the Lib Dems end up with just 19 MPs.
In it he states:
"Until the recent elections I assumed that the Lib Dems would regain some ground as next year’s election approached. Even if they remained well below the 24% they scored in 2010, most of their MPs would enjoy enough local support to minimise their losses.
"Now I am not so sure. That is, I still think that the Lib Dems could claw their way back to around 14%; but there is now a chance that they will remain stuck on around 8%."
And on 8% - the best scenario for the party is just 23 seats.
Kellner also turns perceived wisdom on its head that a narrow Labour lead equates to a small overall majority, stating "Labour must also abandon its hopes of winning an overall majority with a narrow lead in the popular vote. Depending on Lib Dem performance and the precise size of the Tories’ sophomore surge, Labour’s lead needs to be at least 3% and possibly 5%."
In it he states:
"Until the recent elections I assumed that the Lib Dems would regain some ground as next year’s election approached. Even if they remained well below the 24% they scored in 2010, most of their MPs would enjoy enough local support to minimise their losses.
"Now I am not so sure. That is, I still think that the Lib Dems could claw their way back to around 14%; but there is now a chance that they will remain stuck on around 8%."
And on 8% - the best scenario for the party is just 23 seats.
Kellner also turns perceived wisdom on its head that a narrow Labour lead equates to a small overall majority, stating "Labour must also abandon its hopes of winning an overall majority with a narrow lead in the popular vote. Depending on Lib Dem performance and the precise size of the Tories’ sophomore surge, Labour’s lead needs to be at least 3% and possibly 5%."
Thanks for writing this. His views on Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats seem to be based on good information. From my personal viewpoint as a Liberal Democratic voter for many elections, there is not a cat in hell's chance of the Liberal Democrats' having 19 MPs after the next election.
ReplyDeletePeople generally vote out of frustrated habit for parties they have chosen before or choose the best of a series of weak candidates from the main parties. Few people for at least the next decade will consider the LibDems a main party nor will they regard them as an alternative to the main parties. There is nothing to trust or believe in, Liberal Democrats are widely seen as the epitomy of self serving politicians.
Eliminated from consideration, the Lib Dem party will be lucky to win 0-4 seats in the general election because Liberal Democratic MPs sold their own voters down the river. Maybe, and it is a big maybe, a few Liberal Democrat MPs will cling on because they performed well in their constituencies,but not the rest.
I and a number of my friends & family regularly voted for Lib Dem as the alternative to the mainstream, but the party's treatment of it's supporters and desperate desire to high profile status and power positions for their MPs and so called key Party personnel has disgusted us.
Liberal Democratic party successfully hung on the coat tails of the two other mainstream parties but it is now totally adrift. The party will be brutally punished in the forthcoming election by past voters.