Scottish referendum - yes takes the lead.

With less than a fortnight to go before the Indy referendum Political Betting reports that a YouGov poll puts the Yes campaign in front by a whisker.  I'm not surprised - the shamefully negative and insulting No campaign - funded by Cameron's Tories and run by west central Scotland's Labour mafia has made no case for the union and failed to agree what new powers Scotland will get in the event of a No vote.

The Yes campaign has also been helped by a bit of social media creativity - such as this:

Peter Kellner: Lib Dems could slump to 19 MPs in 2015 'meltdown'

In an interesting commentary on the YouGov website, one of the UK's top psephologists - Peter Kellner -  postulates some 2015 election scenarios that see the Lib Dems end up with just 19 MPs.

In it he states:

"Until the recent elections I assumed that the Lib Dems would regain some ground as next year’s election approached. Even if they remained well below the 24% they scored in 2010, most of their MPs would enjoy enough local support to minimise their losses.

"Now I am not so sure. That is, I still think that the Lib Dems could claw their way back to around 14%; but there is now a chance that they will remain stuck on around 8%."
And on 8% - the best scenario for the party is just 23 seats. 

Kellner also turns perceived wisdom on its head that a narrow Labour lead equates to a small overall majority, stating "Labour must also abandon its hopes of winning an overall majority with a narrow lead in the popular vote. Depending on Lib Dem performance and the precise size of the Tories’ sophomore surge, Labour’s lead needs to be at least 3% and possibly 5%."