21 June 2013

So who's voting UKIP?

Well if you believe the media it is disenchated Tories demanding the sort of nonsense announced in the 'alternative Queen's speech' by Peter 'Sven' Bone.

Well the Liberton and Gilmerton by-election last night in Edinburgh for once provides some hard facts about the nature of their (albeit still small) support north of border.  Thanks to the Lib Dems introduction of STV for local council elections we can see how votes transfer between parties - rather than just speculate.  So here's how real UKIP votes transferred:

The table doesn't show parties - but their votes transferred as follows:
Con = 67
Lab = 35
SNP = 31
Green = 31
Lib Dem = 9

While it being just one small sample what this suggests to me is that clearly the Tories are currently losing most from UKIP's surge (as the mainstream view suggests) but not as much as we are being told to expect.

Instead, what I find significant is the derisory UKIP - Lib Dem transfer.  What this says is the Lib Dems have completely lost the radical 'none of the above' vote, from those who have been disillusioned long term by the political system.  This is a direct result of the political 'strategy' adopted by the party since 2010 influenced by the world's worst political strategist - Richard Reeves - and still implicit in the current strategy which although sharpens the messaging still believes there's votes to be gained by proving you've become a 'serious party of government' (whatever that is).

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